A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
